Do Not Install A High Efficiency Furnace In 2024 – Here Is Why

In 2024, most HVAC “advisers” and contractors focus on furnace efficiency and therefore recommend that you install a high-efficiency (HE) furnace (90% AFUE and higher).

Often they don’t even mention a Standard Efficiency (80% AFUE), as an option. However we strongly believe it is in your best interest to at least consider the “older” tech.

Why? Because unlike you may be lead to believe, HE furnaces are more expensive to install and operate, they are less comfortable, and break often, leading to a typical repair in excess of $1000-1500.

High efficiency furnaces usually break during the coldest day of the year, and you are stuck without heat for 2-7 days, because no supplier has the part, and it has to be custom ordered!

Let’s look at all the numbers first:

Installation Cost: High-Efficiency VS Standard Efficiency Furnace

The initial financial outlay of installing a high-efficiency furnace should be enough to make most reconsider.

While most HVAC companies provide a range of options, there’s a clear trend: the higher the efficiency, the steeper the price.

Moving from an 80% efficiency furnace to even a 90% one can increase costs by and average of $2400-$3000.

A standard efficiency furnace costs between $4,120 to $5,190 to install/replace.

A two-stage, High-Efficiency furnace for the same home will cost $6,970 to $8,710, and may actually also require ductwork upgrade to fork properly. Otherwise your efficiency will diminish back down below 90% range.

If you’re living in milder climates, the use of the furnace is limited to a few months. So, recouping the hefty installation costs might remain a pipe dream.

Improve Furnace Efficiency By Adding Insulation

Before splashing out on a new $7,800+ High-Efficiency furnace, consider the insulation of your home. Many homes suffer from poor insulation, which can be a pricier problem than having a slightly less efficient furnace.

Adding Spray Foam insulation and installing new double/triple pane replacement windows, can reduce your annual heating costs by as much as 35% per year.

For a typical homeowner that is a saving of about $970/year. Over a 10 year period, assuming a 5% annual increase in gas price (which is very conservative), you will save a total of $12,840, while still running your 80% furnace.

For the environmentally conscious folks that is a reduction of 513.8 Therms of natural gas / year, or 62,067 pounds of CO2 emissions over 10 years.

By adding / improving insulation, you also decrease your home’s heat load, requiring a smaller size furnace, leading to incremental reduction in energy costs & emissions.

Why Standard Efficiency Is Better Than High-Efficiency Furnaces?

The perceived allure of high-efficiency furnaces might be deceiving. Despite their promises to save money, the truth is far from it.

Here’s a strongly worded case against the purchase of high-efficiency furnaces and why the standard 80% furnaces are the superior choice:

Expert’s advise:

Repair Costs: Furnaces, like all appliances, need occasional maintenance and repair. The more complex the device, the more expensive the repair. For example, a standard efficiency furnace’s blower motor might set you back $200, whereas a modulating furnace’s inducer motor can skyrocket to $700 to $1500.

For example, a Goodman GM9C96 (a budget 2-stage 96% AFUE furnace) is the most popular High-Efficiency furnace in a popular HVAC store eComfort.

An ECM blower motor for this furnace ranges around $600 – $1000 on Amazon, and costs $864.24 on Repair Clinic, a popular HVAC parts store. That is about 40% of the cost of this NEW furnace, which costs $2,087.

Now add service call cost + installation labor, which is anywhere from $350 to $700, and you end up with a $1500 repair bill.

And if you don’t think ECM motors fail often, check this example form HVAC talk.

Now imagine your furnace failing during the holidays, only to discover the high repair cost wipes out all your so-called ‘savings’ from its efficiency.

And if you think that’s bad, many high-end parts aren’t instantly available, leaving you in the cold while waiting for a part to arrive.

In most cases, a blower fan or inducer motor for your High-Efficiency furnace is a special order part, and will take 3-7 days to deliver.

And don’t forget Murphy’s law that says: “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong”. So most likely your furnace will break during the coldest day of the year, on a weekend, during holidays. 🙁

Do you think an on-call HVAC guy will have the specific model part for your fancy Lennox furnace?

I’ve had this happen to me, when I woke up in a 49°F house, while it was -15°F outside. Fortunately, I have an older furnace, with fairly standard parts, and most HVAC techs carry a compatible replacement parts in their trucks.

And in my case it was a minor issue – the pilot light went out during the night.

In fact my 35+ years old furnace did not have any service tags, which may or may not mean lack of repairs/service. But in the 7 years I lived in this house, the furnace did not need any repairs.

NOTE: In my case, I fully switched from furnace to Heat Pump heating in 2021, when I installed 15.4K solar PV system, and now have all my heating costs paid by the SUN 🙂

However I still have my furnace fully functional and ready to go, in case power goes out, and I test run it for 30 minutes each fall.

Furnace Lifespan

The benefit of a long-lasting appliance is one most homeowners chase after. But here’s the catch – standard 80% furnaces outlive their high-efficiency counterparts (as mentioned before, my furnace is 35 years old, and fully functional, and with an EcoBee thermostat, you can call it a “smart furnace from the 80’s”.

The typical cause of a furnace’s death is a failed heat exchanger. While traditional furnaces have just one to worry about, the high-efficiency ones have two, doubling the odds of a malfunction.

Add in the intricate electronics and extra components, and you’re looking at a minefield of potential breakdowns. Based on observations, while high-efficiency units are on their last legs by 15 years, the standard ones can easily breach the 20-year mark.

Bottom line: Simple 80% furnaces have fewer parts to break, and are much cheaper to repair.

Other Considerations When Choosing a Furnace

Selling Your Home: If you’re contemplating moving homes in a few years, investing in a pricey furnace isn’t cost-effective. Prospective homeowners are more inclined to look at the age of the appliance rather than its efficiency.

Rumored Bans: There are whispers about bans on 80% furnaces. However, thorough research shows that it’s mostly unfounded. The Department of Energy is considering a plan for 2029, emphasizing at least 95% efficiency for newly installed furnaces. But that’s a concern for another decade.

Which Type of Furnace Is Right For You?

Let’s put this into perspective. If you have a rugged, old furnace, don’t ditch it just because it’s aged. They’re often more robust and of superior quality than the newer models.

If safety is a concern, a simple inspection can set your worries to rest. And if you were to ask my personal choice – given a choice between the old and the new, I’d stick with an 80% standard efficiency furnace every single time.

Life is simply more straightforward that way. Don’t fall for the high-efficiency gimmick; sometimes, simpler is better.